So I am sitting there on my couch last night around 11:30 starting to come up with a layout for this morning’s article. I mean, let’s face it…no matter the outcome of last night’s game between the Patriots and Colts, there were major implications.

At that particular time in the game, the Colts were down by 13, Peyton was playing more like Eli having thrown a couple of horrid looking ducks to the opposition, and the defense hadn’t really stopped Brady for the last three quarters (save for the pick in the end zone).

Watching the Colts play defense is a serious test of patience. The primary philosophy for years has been to play a cover 2 scheme, which keeps most of the plays in front of them, makes the other team have to sustain a drive, and hope that somewhere during the course of a drive that a turnover or penalty occurs that prevents a touchdown. It is not often that they force the tempo, it is usually dictated upon them.

So at that moment in the game, I was mulling over what were the story lines. Was it once again the Patriots showing up in the big game against the Colts, while the soft Colts laid down? Was it the fact that Indy’s undefeated streak went to the bench the same way most of the Colt’s secondary has (injured reserve, ala Bob Sanders, again)? Was it Manning, who until now had been having yet another MVP season, laying an egg in the biggest game of the year so far?

I have to say, sitting down at the beginning of the game, I was expecting the worst. As the GMan referred to in his Start/Bench picks for this week, the Colts secondary has recently been decimated by injury. This is not the way you want to come into a game against what two years ago was the best offense in recent football history.

And, as anticipated, the Pats started winging it all over the place and before you know it, 24 points in a row go on the board and things look pretty bleak.

For Pats and Colts fans, even though this is a regular season game, it has always had major implications for the playoffs. Typically the winner of this game ends up with an advantage when it comes to home field in the playoffs. And, recent history has shown, that makes all the difference in the world, particularly for the Colts and their aerial attack having to face the tough winter conditions in Foxboro in January. When they won the Super Bowl three years ago, a major component of that was having the Patriots come to Indy for the playoffs, and even then it was close.

I had written the Colts off at the four minute mark. The offense was sporadic, one drive solid, the next a catastrophe. Pat McAfee was probably icing his leg after the game having punted way more than he is used to. But, then it happened. The tide began to turn.

First, a huge fumble going in by Laurence Maroney on what certainly would have been a backbreaking score. Next thing you know, Manning engineers a drive and after Joe Addai takes one in, the deficit is narrowed to six.

Now, again, as a Colts fan with a defense that is more bend-don’t break than “come with your hair on fire”, you do not feel good about where you are at. Kicking off to Brady with under three minutes to go is not a comforting proposition. Couple of short gains and you arrive at what should have been the biggest defensive play of the game for the Colts. Third and two, they finally blitz and rookie corner Jerraud Powers just misses taking one to the house.

Then, the moment of the game that has the national media and Patriots fans in an uproar this morning. Instead of punting back to the Colts and placing the game squarely in the hands of the Pats D, coach Bill Belichick decides instead to go for it on 4th and 2. For those that play Texas Hold Em, this is the equivalent of going “all-in”.

Consider what is at stake with this decision. At 6-2 and the offense starting to more and more resemble the team from 2007, the Pats hold on to take this game and they move to 7-2, one game behind Indy who would be at 8-1, with some tough games on the horizon. As I mentioned previously in this article, home field has always been a tremendous advantage between these two teams in the playoffs. So not only is the game on the line here, but maybe the entire season.

It is just two yards to make the first down and I have to tell you, I was really bummed to see them go for it for two reasons.  First, the Pats are masters at the slant route and have so many options for a play that short that you know the chances of stopping them twice in a row are not favorable. Second, if the Pats do indeed get it, the game is over.

Mike Greenburg had shared on Mike and Mike this morning a couple of points that I found interesting. First, he measured whether he thought it was a good call or not by how would you react if you were the opposing team. Frankly, I was personally scared to death that the Pats would convert.  He also shared that the Pats have converted on over 60% of their fourth down attempts from less than two yards over the last few years, so you have the percentages in your favor. But it is the 40% against you that is why Belichick is getting creamed this morning.

So many things can go wrong here, and punting eliminates most of them. Bad snap to Brady. Fumble by a receiver. Tipped ball at the line. Corner jumps a route and gets a pick. Or the ball could simply slip out of the center’s grasp for a bad snap.

Many of the analysts after the game said that the move showed that Belichick was not confident that his defense could stop Manning after he had gotten hot in the fourth quarter. What I find interesting about that is, if that is true, the Colts did indeed score on the previous drive from about 70 yards out, but almost half of that came from a pass interference penalty. It is not as though his D had been completely torched and frankly did get a couple of picks on him in the second half.

Whatever the reason, the results meant Christmas came early for Colts fans, as you have to feel pretty good about your chances with Manning getting the ball at the Pat’s 30 yard line with just under two minutes left in the game. Just as it was impossible for the Colts to stop Brady to Moss down near the goal line after Wes Welker’s long punt return, it was equally as daunting a task to ask the Pats D to prevent Manning to Wayne for the winning score.

Does this decision make Belichick any less of a coach? Clearly not, one of the best football minds in recent years, even if he does not have the personality to match. No, it simply means on this particular night and this particular play, he decided the game was going to be won or lost by his offense and went all-in on the play.

He just wasn’t planning to get a bad beat on the river…